Yes — and the relationship is monotonic across the whole band. CUs that grew members every single one of the last 4 quarters (512 CUs, 28% of the $100M+ sample) grew 5.15% YoY. CUs that didn't grow in any quarter (297 CUs) shrank -4.58% — a 9.7pp spread, with no plateau in between.
Every federally insured US credit union with $100M+ in assets and data across all 5 quarters (2024-12-31 through 2025-12-31). For each CU we count how many of the 4 quarter-over-quarter member-count comparisons were positive (0–4). Outcome: year-over-year member growth at the latest quarter.
| Consistency | Avg (consistency) | Range | Credit unions | Avg member growth YoY | Median member growth YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 of 4 — declining every quarter | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 quarters positive | 297 | -4.58% | -3.48% |
| 1 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 4 quarters positive | 254 | 0.18% | -1.34% |
| 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 quarters positive | 293 | 0.17% | -0.17% |
| 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 quarters positive | 453 | 2.61% | 1.30% |
| 4 of 4 — grew every quarter | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 quarters positive | 512 | 5.15% | 3.82% |
The relationship isn't binary (grew or didn't) — it's graded. Every additional consistent quarter raises the YoY growth rate. 0 of 4 → -4.58%. 2 of 4 → 0.17%. 4 of 4 → 5.15%. There is no "good enough" band where missed quarters stop hurting.
For a board reviewing KPIs: a CU that hits its annual member-growth target but does so in lumpy fashion (two great quarters offsetting two bad ones) sits in a measurably weaker growth regime than a CU that hits the same annual number with four positive quarters. The smoothness is itself signal — likely a proxy for organizational execution, retention quality, or some combination of both.
The compounders are a meaningful share of the industry. 28% of mid-size and large CUs grew members every single quarter in our window. If your CU isn't in that 28%, the relevant peer comparison isn't "did you beat the industry average" — it's "what does the every-quarter-grew set do differently."
Tudovu Research is published from NCUA call-report data via CU Growth Plan. New analysis each quarter as fresh data lands.
Tudovu's Industry Data Explorer runs this same analysis on a custom peer set — pick the asset tier, state, charter type, or specific competitors and we'll show you where your CU sits in the curve.